The Factor of Luck in No-Limit Hold'em

This article is mainly for beginners who are at the first steps of the poker career. It will talk about the short-term and medium-term impact of luck in poker and about what you should expect in the next months if you continue intensive poker practice. In addition, you will get tips on how to react to the runs of luck (upswings) and the losing streaks (downswings).

Luck While Playing

In any hand, you can play absolutely properly and still lose. This is not an exception and happens very often. And vice versa, you can play your hand completely wrong and finally win. Short-term results depend not on the strength of the game, but on luck. However, in any case, it's better to play more skillfully than your rivals. Thus, in the long run, you can win as much as you deserve according to your real game level. You will come across downswings again and again, during which you will lose money for hundreds, sometimes thousands of poker hands. On the other hand, sometimes you will win more and more. In an extreme situation, it is especially important to behave correctly. This will be discussed in the following sections.

Good Luck Behaviour

Of course, an upswing is a very exciting event. It's nice to win money and look at the growing bankroll. However, the euphoria easily leads to mistakes. Therefore, it is important to observe the following:

• Look for mistakes in your game.
• Try to improve your game according to these mistakes.

Even if you are still in the game, you should try to improve your performance. Find your mistakes, post your hands on forums, read articles and books about poker.

• Adhere to the bankroll management rules.

A run of luck is always the past. Success or failure in the past is in no way connected with good luck in the future. Whatever happens, stick to the bankroll rules. If in a 1000 hands session you have won good money, this does not mean that during the next same session you will win much as well. Therefore, in any case, you must follow the rules of bankroll management. Even if in a state of euphoria it seems to you that you are already beating the next limit, still wait until your bankroll grows up to the figure that allows you to go to it. Patience is one of the most important qualities of a poker player.

Bad Luck Behaviour

A downswing is usually a phase in which more than 5 buy-ins are lost. Smaller losses are unpleasant, but often occur, and you should not worry because of them. If you are in a real downswing with more losses than 5 buy-ins, keep a cool head and stick to the following:

• Find mistakes in your game and try to fix them.

A streak of failure does not mean that you are playing badly. It's possible that everything is OK, and you are just not lucky. But the big loss is always an alarm signal: it is possible that there are typical mistakes in your game that lead to the constant loss of money. Find your mistakes and post your hands on forums. If you do not know if you played correctly, read the theoretical articles and put questions if you do not understand something.

• Pause after big losses.

One rarely realizes that they started tilting, i.e. losing self-control. After big losses, players start playing differently, usually more aggressively and worse. Therefore, it is better to pause. Best of all - until the next day.

• Adhere to the bankroll management rules.

It is much more difficult to adhere to these rules during a period of failure than during an upswing. Each of us wants to recoup. But if your bankroll has seriously decreased, then you should go to a lower limit. There is nothing shameful in the fact that you play at one or two limits lower during the downswing. It's shameful to lose the whole bankroll, playing at improper limits.

Going to a lower limit, you will sooner or later come out of downswings and win back your losses, at the same time becoming a stronger player.

Realistic Expectations

The so-called win rate (the average winnings) in no-limit Hold'em is calculated in the big blinds for 100 hands (BB/100). For example, if you play 100 hands on NL $10 ( 5blinds/10 cents) with an average win of 6 BB/100, then you win 60 cents. For 300 hands it will be $1.80. Conversely, you can calculate your win rate by dividing your winnings multiplied by 100 by the number of hands played. Usually, 65 poker hands are played in one hour on one table. You can also use different tools like Pokertracker which calculates your win rate for each of the limits played.

Your win rate will become more or less indicative starting with 20,000 hands played.

First, be satisfied with any positive win rate values. Anything bigger than 10BB/100 (5 PTBB/100 hands) is a very good goal. A good player can win more at low limits, up to 20 BB/100 (10 PTBB/100 hands). But this does not mean that you necessarily need to achieve these indicators. As already mentioned, any positive number is already good. In addition, a great role is played by luck, especially if you played a few hands. Therefore, at first your win rate can differ greatly from the above numbers.

Conclusion

The development of your game level and your bankroll depends on how much time you spend on poker, on your talent, your performance and, of course, on luck. The ability to control oneself during upswings and downswings is also important. Do not underestimate this last factor. If you do not move forward for a long time or even lose, do not consider this as a reason for concern. Follow the poker tips and improve your game. Month after month, you will begin to improve both your game and your bankroll.

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